The advent of artificial intelligence (AI) has marked a monumental shift in technological advancements over the past few yearsAmong the many applications of AI, humanoid robots have emerged as a fascinating intersection of technology and human-like capabilitiesThese robots, often referred to as the best embodiment of embodied intelligence, represent a significant leap forward in robotics, particularly with the growing prevalence of new energy vehicles that provide a robust platform for their development.

The Explosion of Humanoid Robots Soon: An Anticipated Demand of Billions

The emergence of humanoid robots has been fueled by remarkable progress in AI technology alongside the maturation of the supply chains that support new energy vehicles

On November 28, Tesla's Optimus experienced a significant update, showcasing impressive capabilities such as catching tennis balls with bare hands and exhibiting enhanced reaction times and hand dexterityElon Musk, the visionary behind Tesla, predicts that by 2025, mass production of the Optimus humanoid robot will commence, with initial batches potentially reaching the thousandsBy 2026, widespread production and exports could materialize, establishing a market demand that may reach up to 10 billion units in the long term.

As Tesla leads the charge, major technology companies worldwide, such as Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Samsung, Tencent, OpenAI, and SoftBank, are quickening their investments in humanoid robotics

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Numerous institutions have begun investing in or developing humanoid robots, shaping an industry landscape that commands attention and resourcesNotably, international players such as Tesla, Norway's 1XTechnologies, Agility Robotics in the United States, Figure Robotics, Engineered Arts in the UK, Sanctuary AI from Canada, PAL Robotics in Spain, Rainbow Robotics in South Korea, Honda, and General Motors are among those that have already launched humanoid robotsIn China, a host of companies, including Tencent, Xiaomi, DJI, UBTECH, and Yushuc Technology, are participating in this burgeoning sector.

With the rapid evolution of these humanoid robots, supported by both hardware and software advancements and favorable policies, this sector has recently become a focal point for investment

Data indicates that since September 24, the robotics index has skyrocketed by 44.38%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.63% in the robotics funds, signaling a bullish sentiment in the humanoid robot market.

Current Production Challenges in the Humanoid Robot Industry

From an industry perspective, the humanoid robot sector is still in its nascent stages

Presently, the production costs for these robots are prohibitively high, often starting at $100,000. The barriers to entry are steep due to the complex core components required and the need for ongoing advancements in mechanical design, motion control, and AI integration to enable mass production and usage.

Predictive insights into the market size reveal a broad spectrum of expectationsEstimates for the humanoid robot market in 2030 vary significantly, from hundreds of millions of dollars to several hundred billion dollars

However, there is a widely acknowledged consensus suggesting that the market could see valuations in the range of hundreds of billions of dollars by that pointTesla's projections indicate that in the next three to five years (around 2025-2028), mass production could yield millions of units at a price under $20,000, closely reflecting these predictions.

The Growth of Domestic Robot Technology and Industry

China's government has astutely recognized the developmental opportunities presented by humanoid robots and is offering considerable policy support for innovative advancements in the sector

Frequent announcements from governmental bodies focus on the critical technology and infrastructure developments that favor the advancement of humanoid robots within the nationSuch policy frameworks aim to guide and inspire the Chinese robot industry towards high-quality advancements and increased competitiveness.

The anticipated growth trajectory for the humanoid robot market in China suggests it could reach approximately 27.6 billion yuan (around $4 billion) by 2024, growing further to 104.71 billion yuan (around $14.5 billion) by 2026, and possibly reaching 750 billion yuan (over $100 billion) by 2029, which might constitute 32.7% of the global market, potentially ranking it as the world's largest

Projections for 2035 suggest that this market size could swell to as much as 300 billion yuan, underscoring the industry's immense potential.

The Landscape of Humanoid Robot Components and Local Manufacturing

Humanoid robots are primarily composed of three main systems: the sensing system, control system, and execution system

The supply chain for humanoid robots can generally be divided into three segments: upstream (raw materials and core components), midstream (robot bodies and system integration), and downstream (application scenarios).

At the upstream level, both hardware (components) and software systems are vital, with core components including servo systems, actuators, reducers, control systems, and drivers which are characterized by their high technology barriers and significant cost implications

Midstream involves the integration of robot bodies and systems, while downstream focuses on leveraging these robots for real-world applications.

Current primary foreign players in the humanoid robot market also tend to dominate the supply chain regarding technology, with Japanese and Western companies leading the chargeJapanese manufacturers focus more on parts like motors and sensors, while their Western counterparts excel in control systems and AI processing capabilities.

However, in recent years, domestic Chinese manufacturers have started to catch up with the technological advancements in the industry.

Companies such as UBTECH are positioned as leaders in this space, expected to be the first to tap into the comprehensive stack of humanoid robotics technology

The Walker X humanoid is designed with advanced features, including 41 high-performance servo-driven joints, sophisticated visual sensors, a flexible display, and a module design for improved functionality.

The success of humanoid robots would hinge on powerful navigation capabilities, which would involve robust mapping technologies, a myriad of sensory inputs, and decision-making abilities that allow for smooth interaction with their environmentsCompanies are also focusing on core technologies such as voice recognition, natural language processing, and advanced AI algorithms, positioning them strategically for the foreseeable future.

Overall, as the humanoid robotics industry continues to mature, the convergence of AI advancements, investment influx, and supportive policies will likely yield transformative impacts, not just in robotics, but across various aspects of society, redefining how we perceive work, automation, and human-robot interactions.